On December 15th, Bitcoin continued to decline and fell below $88000 during trading. As of press time, Bitcoin was reported at $87967.8, a decrease of 2.48%.

　　Apart from Bitcoin, Ethereum fell 1.99%, SOL fell 2.9%, XRP fell 2.35%, Dogecoin fell 3.72%, and ADA fell 3.63%.

　　According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency contracts across the entire network have been liquidated by $270 million, with 115700 people experiencing liquidation. Among them, the multi order liquidation amounted to 230 million US dollars, and the short order liquidation amounted to 35.237 million US dollars. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid ETH, with a value of $4.8542 million.

　　Analysis suggests that the significant cooling of expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be the main reason for the sell-off of the aforementioned risk assets.

　　Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, Fed Chairman Powell's statement on whether to cut interest rates in January next year is not clear. Some believe that the Fed's current decisions are increasingly dependent on economic data, and the uncertainty of whether to cut interest rates in January has increased.

　　According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 75.6%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points by March next year is 41.9%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 8.3%.

　　Last week, several Federal Reserve officials spoke out. Federal Reserve's Schmid said that the labor market is cooling down, but it is still basically balanced; Inflation is still too high, and the economy is showing signs of growth. We hope to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy.

　　Chicago Fed President Goolsby said he voted against this week because he wanted to wait for more economic data to determine if the impact of tariffs on inflation was only temporary. In terms of the expected magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2026, the number of interest rate cuts will exceed the median forecast.

　　Cleveland Fed President Hamack said that the Fed will have better visibility after obtaining new data. I tend to adopt a slightly more restrictive policy stance

　　Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said, "With next year's push, there is a considerable chance that inflation will fall." She described the labor market as "under pressure but not collapsing. And warned that recruitment is concentrated in industries such as healthcare and social services, indicating that broader recruitment is still weak. She said, "The labor market is still good, but the downside risks are increasing

　　In terms of institutional views, Standard Chartered Bank recently significantly lowered its forecast for Bitcoin. Jeff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, told clients in a report that the bank now believes Bitcoin's price will be around $100000 by the end of this year, after previously stating that Bitcoin would climb to a high of $200000 by the end of 2025.

　　Kendrick said that it is expected that Bitcoin will reach $150000 next year, about half of the previous target of $300000. Kendrick pointed out that the change in the target price is mainly caused by the recent sell-off of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 27% from its peak in early October. The price trend has forced us to readjust our Bitcoin price forecast, "Kendrick added, stating that Standard Chartered believes that the purchases of Bitcoin giants have" come to an end, "although ETF inflows may" periodically "rebound.

　　In terms of the international situation, on the 14th, the United States and Ukraine held a closed door meeting in Berlin, the German capital, to consult on the "peace plan" proposed by the United States to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The talks lasted for over five hours, and the agenda for the day has ended. Both sides have agreed to continue on the 15th. Just before the talks began, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine agreed to accept security guarantees provided by the United States and Europe, similar to NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause.

　　The core issues of this meeting are still territory, security guarantees, and the frozen assets of the Russian central bank by the European Union. US Presidential Envoy Witkov released minutes after the talks. The minutes show that representatives from both sides had in-depth discussions on issues such as the "peace plan" and economic agenda, and the talks made "significant progress". The minutes did not disclose specific details regarding 'significant progress'.